"Worst Case" Scenario: Pros and Cons

ARCC members debated the wisdom of releasing "worst case scenario" data on the Internet and through other available public sources under new requirements of the Clean Air Act. Under the Act, companies must generate "models" depicting the worst imaginable outcome of an industrial accident and then make the models publically available.

Many major companies already use such modeling to prepare scenarios for use by trained emergency responders. But it has not been required that they widely publicize such information until now. Some observers are concerned that "worst case" depictions will be released on the Internet and used for purposes other than those intended.

Some union and company reps said they opposed the broadcasting of "worst case" models because they could be used by anti-industry groups to frighten people - despite the excellent overall safety record of U.S. industry. It was noted that the U.S. military and intelligence communities have opposed the release of such data, fearing that terrorists or unbalanced individuals would use it to target manufacturing operations, endangering plant workers and adjacent communities.

Other reps stressed that individuals and communities need and deserve the best possible information to be able to respond effectively in case of a plant disaster. They said that publishing "worst case" information on the Internet would be a positive step and that the people in plant communities would not overreact. Some reps doubted that professional terrorists would depend on publically-available data to attack a manufacturing facility.

A chemical union rep said that plant managers who took the initiative to invite the local community into the plant and to be open about plant activities, emergency scenarios and response plans had been very well received. It was noted that the U.S. chemical industry has instituted an outreach program to plant communities, with panels of community residents and plant personnel in several hundred locations.

A movement toward greater public right-to-know about manufacturing activities and processes has been underway in the United States for over 20 years. The trend is toward greater access to information. ARCC reps agree that it is incumbent on industry to comply responsibly with the need to help protect public safety in the event of a major plant accident by making essential information readily available. But, the protection of facilities, workers and surrounding communities from the actions of unbalanced individuals has become an unfortunate necessity and must be considered.